Patients and ex-patients of COVID-19 are (fortunately) much less numerous than the healthy, even after the passage of two waves of pandemic. This is why we are going to focus here on the transitional phase, from healthy to patient status: the numbers of people to be treated are (fortunately) infinitely less than those to be vaccinated.
By remembering the mathematics of the series, we realize that it is horribly difficult to get out of an installed pandemic: it would have been necessary to be able to drop the reason for contagiousness to a number less than 1 as soon as the disease was known; this is still the goal to be reached at all stages of the pandemic: the only truly rapid and effective way is to treat the disease at its onset.
Let’s say there are 10,000 new cases of COVID-19, out of the 8.5 million Swiss, on a JNOIR day of 2020; if the reason is 1, it means the day before 10,000 new cases; the probability that a new patient will infect on average a single person in his entourage, by definition is therefore 1. To reduce this probability, it is necessary to introduce along the path of contamination not only barriers (by not changing anything, the probability will remain 1), but also a significant drop in the rate of reproduction of the virus; let us assume that 8,000 of these infected people spray their nasal cavities and gargle diligently morning and noon, the probability will theoretically drop to at most 20%; the next day, theoretically, we should therefore only have 2,000 new cases (coming from these 10,000 cases of the day JNOIR); by repeating the process, two days later we should only have 400, the day after 80: the law of series has been turned against the virus! We have the right to wonder what to expect to get started (?!). The condition for this success is that the entire cohort of patients engage in the treatment with the most rigorous diligence – this is where careful monitoring will have to be; this is the pattern – the reality will probably be more nuanced.
Costs per patient: a bottle at Fr. 0.30, the mechanism at Fr.1.60, 10 ml of anti-COVID-19 remedy Fr.0.02, in all less than Fr. 2..- of material; if other costs are taken into account, this should be compared with commercial nasal sprays at around Fr. 5.- to Fr. 15.- The costs of gargles targeting SARS-COV-2 are even lower.
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It is by considering the fate of a cohort of SARS-COV-2 viruses, that we mathematically find how to practice! Let us take a droplet as a vehicle and see what it becomes, when the contamination has started well:
§1 It lands on a doorknob and will infect the hand of the patient who touches it; it waits for the automatic gesture which will bring it into the patient’s eye, nose or mouth. Remedy: wash hands with alcohol – contamination failed.
§2 It lands on the patient’s face, in his eye, nose or mouth. Remedy: never touch or scratch … and wash your hands often with alcohol – with keeping the distance, contamination is unlikely to succeed.
§3 It enters the nasal cavities of the carefree fellow who passes by there at short distance: he turns into a patient, the contamination has succeeded. Remedy: nasal spray and gargle; it is the production of new droplets that is compromised – contamination of the patient is partially compromised, but all the progeny of droplet-forming viruses being killed; the patient has a better chance, faced with a decimated virus cohort in his nasal secretions. But above all, it contaminates those around it much less: no more droplets, no more descendants of the virus! But since the virus is in the patient’s body, partly beyond the reach of the disinfectant, it is his immune system that will cause him to heal (it is a bit late to vaccinate …).
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As the production of nasal sprays and mouthwashes is much simpler and easier than that of vaccines, as their administration is also much simpler and easier, the number of patients treated on time can be increased much better than with vaccines. The probability of coming to the end of the pandemic is thereby increased … By systematizing process 3, we can estimate that it will be overcome in less than a month.
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André Bovay-Rohr, Switzerland, 25.12.2020, rev.9.1.2021