{"id":2002,"date":"2020-01-22T19:09:57","date_gmt":"2020-01-22T18:09:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/?p=2002"},"modified":"2020-01-22T23:34:34","modified_gmt":"2020-01-22T22:34:34","slug":"co2-ch4-methode-scientifique-en-echec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/co2-ch4-methode-scientifique-en-echec\/","title":{"rendered":"CO2, CH4, &#8230; M\u00e9thode scientifique en \u00e9chec"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Date: <\/b>22 janvier 2020 01:10:18 UTC+1<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>\u00c0: <\/b>\u00ab\u00a0Prof. Seneviratne Sonia\u00a0\u00bb &lt;sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Rebetez Martine\u00a0\u00bb &lt;martine.rebetez@unine.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Alexis Berne\u00a0\u00bb &lt;alexis.berne@epfl.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Philippe Thalmann\u00a0\u00bb &lt;philippe.thalmann@epfl.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Samuel Jaccard\u00a0\u00bb &lt;samuel.jaccard@geo.unibe.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Thomas Stocker\u00a0\u00bb &lt;thomas.stocker@climate.unibe.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Nicolas Gruber\u00a0\u00bb &lt;nicolas.gruber@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Reto Knutti\u00a0\u00bb &lt;reto.knutti@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Christoph Sch\u00e4r\u00a0\u00bb &lt;schaer@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Dir. IAC Prof. Dr. Wernli\u00a0\u00bb &lt;heini.wernli@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Dr. Augustin Fragni\u00e8re\u00a0\u00bb &lt;Augustin.Fragniere@unil.ch&gt;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Copies: <\/b>\u00ab\u00a0Prof. Suzette Sandoz\u00a0\u00bb &lt;Suzette.Sandoz@unil.ch&gt;, Prof. Franz-Karl Reinhart, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. JACQUOT Pierre\u00a0\u00bb &lt;pierre.jacquot@epfl.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Masson-Delmotte Val\u00e9rie\u00a0\u00bb &lt;valerie.masson@lsce.ipsl.fr&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Dufresne Jean-Louis\u00a0\u00bb &lt;jean-louis.dufresne@lmd.jussieu.fr&gt;, Prof. Jean-Claude Pont, info.dubochet@unil.ch, daniel.pillard@ringieraxelspringer.ch, sbg@letemps.ch, gael.hurlimann@letemps.ch, sciences@letemps.ch<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Le pr\u00e9sent message est public<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Destinataires:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Les auteurs de l\u2019article dans le Temps on-line du 21.1.2020\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">de titre \u00abLe d\u00e9bat sur le CO2 est clos: r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 Mme Sandoz\u00bb \u00e0 savoir les signataires:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u00a0Dr. Augustin Fragni\u00e8re, Universit\u00e9 de Lausanne<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Alexis Berne, EPFL\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Samuel Jaccard, Universit\u00e9 de Berne\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Martine Rebetez, Universit\u00e9 de Neuch\u00e2tel\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Sonia Seneviratne, ETH Z\u00fcrich\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Nicolas Gruber, ETH Z\u00fcrich\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Reto Knutti, ETH Z\u00fcrich<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Christoph Sch\u00e4r, ETH Z\u00fcrich<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Thomas Stocker, Universit\u00e9 de Berne<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Philippe Thalmann, EPFL<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Prof. Heini Wernli, ETH Z\u00fcrich\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Mme la Professeure,\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">M. le Professeur,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Citation de l\u2019article susmentionn\u00e9:\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00ab \u2026\u00a0<i>Les fondements physiques de l\u2019effet de serre, \u00e0 savoir le fait que le CO2 et d\u2019autres gaz pr\u00e9sents dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re pi\u00e8gent une\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>partie de la chaleur qui s\u2019\u00e9chappe de la Terre vers l\u2019espace, sont connus depuis le milieu du XIXe\u00a0si\u00e8cle. Il n\u2019y a l\u00e0 aucun myst\u00e8re et\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>c\u2019est\u00a0un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne physique tr\u00e8s bien compris. Les premi\u00e8res mentions d\u2019un possible r\u00e9chauffement du climat d\u00fb aux activit\u00e9s\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>industrielles\u00a0datent d\u2019un article de 1896 du Prix Nobel de chimie Svante Arrhenius. Les mesures syst\u00e9matiques de la concentration\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>de CO2 dans\u00a0l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re ont commenc\u00e9 en 1958 et les reconstitutions sur la base des carottages glaciaires permettent de remonter\u00a0<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u00e0 des\u00a0centaines de milliers d\u2019ann\u00e9es.<\/i>\u00a0\u2026\u00bb\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Elle prouve que <b>le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne physique a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9termin\u00e9 par corr\u00e9lations &#8211; et pas\u00a0calcul\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re directe<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">A l\u2019\u00e9poque o\u00f9 cette d\u00e9termination a \u00e9t\u00e9 faite et par la suite utilis\u00e9e pour conforter des conclusions, on ne disposait pas des outils\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">de simulations num\u00e9riques n\u00e9cessaires: je n\u2019ai pas connaissance que des scientifiques les ait utilis\u00e9s il y a plus de 20 ans.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Par malheur, il se trouve que le dit \u00ab effet de serre\u00a0\u00bb, tel qu\u2019il est d\u00e9fini en physique, par exemple par le Prof. Dufresne,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">ne se v\u00e9rifie pas, d\u00e8s qu\u2019on le d\u00e9cortique en simulations num\u00e9riques, comme le Prof. Reinhart l\u2019a publi\u00e9 en 2014.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Il y a eu erreur de m\u00e9thode en physique: en climatologie est utilis\u00e9e la concentration en CO2 et CH4 (entre autres) comme\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">catalyseurs de r\u00e9chauffement; or l\u2019intensit\u00e9 calcul\u00e9e en simulation num\u00e9rique est microscopique: pas d\u2019effet de serre possible.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">La loi des gaz parfaits s\u2019applique rigoureusement, dans la troposph\u00e8re o\u00f9 nous vivons.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Ce n\u2019est pas une catastrophe &#8211; ce n\u2019est pas la premi\u00e8re fois en sciences qu\u2019une grande cohorte de savants se serait tromp\u00e9e \u2026\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Le besoin de publier ces faits vient de l\u2019usage qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait de ces donn\u00e9es<\/b>: comme l\u2019effet de serre d\u00fb aux gaz \u00e0 plus de\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">2 atomes n\u2019existe pas, il convient de changer de m\u00e9thode scientifique: cette erreur est en train de nous entra\u00eener dans\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">un d\u00e9sastre civil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">L\u2019urgence qu\u2019il y a \u00e0 r\u00e9duire nos \u00e9missions de CO2 et de CH4, entre autres, en est invalid\u00e9e &#8211; si l\u2019on croyait freiner le\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u00a0r\u00e9chauffement climatique global.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Le trait\u00e9 de Paris en perd sa substance.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Nos Autorit\u00e9s ont l\u00e9gif\u00e9r\u00e9 sur le CO2 de mani\u00e8re devenue infond\u00e9e &#8211; bien qu\u2019elles aient \u00e9t\u00e9 averties du probl\u00e8me. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span class=\"s1\">Devant l\u2019importance de l\u2019affaire, il me semble que la moindre des choses serait de se (re)pencher sur le probl\u00e8me du CO2\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">en physique (ce que j\u2019ai sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 hier au GIEC, voir la documentation).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Meilleures salutations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Andr\u00e9 Bovay-Rohr, Physicien\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span class=\"s1\"> \u00a0 *\u00a0 \u00a0*\u00a0 \u00a0*<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><strong>Bibliographie:\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/suggestion-au-giec-calculs-a-re-faire-sur-co2-et-ch4\/\" target=\"_blank\">Suggestion au GIEC: calculs \u00e0 (re)faire sur CO2 et CH4<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">Travaux du Pr. Franz-Karl Reinhart, physicien.<span class=\"s1\">\u00a0Biographie:\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/co2-une-chimere-climatique\/\" target=\"_blank\">CO2, une chim\u00e8re climatique<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span class=\"s1\">Textes:\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<span class=\"s2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/en-physique-les-effets-de-serre-dans-notre-atmosphere-sont-negligeables\/\" target=\"_blank\">CO2 et effet de serre<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/la-terre-est-une-planete-pas-une-serre\/\" target=\"_blank\">La Terre est une plan\u00e8te &#8211; pas une serre<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p3\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Date: 22 janvier 2020 01:10:18 UTC+1 \u00c0: \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Seneviratne Sonia\u00a0\u00bb &lt;sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Rebetez Martine\u00a0\u00bb &lt;martine.rebetez@unine.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Alexis Berne\u00a0\u00bb &lt;alexis.berne@epfl.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Philippe Thalmann\u00a0\u00bb &lt;philippe.thalmann@epfl.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Samuel Jaccard\u00a0\u00bb &lt;samuel.jaccard@geo.unibe.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Thomas Stocker\u00a0\u00bb &lt;thomas.stocker@climate.unibe.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Nicolas Gruber\u00a0\u00bb &lt;nicolas.gruber@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. Reto Knutti\u00a0\u00bb &lt;reto.knutti@env.ethz.ch&gt;, \u00ab\u00a0Prof. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/co2-ch4-methode-scientifique-en-echec\/\">Continuer la lecture <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[343,9],"tags":[237,68,24,241,371,25],"class_list":["post-2002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-science-de-latmosphere","category-suissepays","tag-bovay-rohr","tag-climatologie","tag-co2","tag-franz-karl-reinhart","tag-giec","tag-methane-ch4"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2002"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2008,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2002\/revisions\/2008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.entrelemanetjura.ch\/BLOG_WP_351\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}